Archive for the 'dean' Category

Dean even more worrisome

Posted by mikedaum on August 16th, 2007

Dean made hurricane this morning. The official forecast has him strengthening rapidly and crossing the yucatan peninsula as a cat 4. Officially, he’ll curve a bit north and slam onto land somewhere around the Mexico/Texas border. One of the models, however, GFDL, has recently started to sing a different tune:

As you can see, GFDL is currently predicting that Dean will head straight towards New Orleans, which it will hit as a strong Cat 4 Hurricane. Needless to say, this would be the end of the City.

It’s way, way too early to know what Dean’s gonna do. GFDL will be re-run to see if it is consistently making this prediction. The other models will also be run as well, to see if they are in agreement. Even if the basic track is correct, small deviations in the hurricane’s course can make all the difference.

But I’m worried.

TS Dean becomes worrisome

Posted by mikedaum on August 15th, 2007

I just checked the track for Tropical Storm Dean and the NHC is now predicting he will enter the Gulf missing Cuba and Santo Domingo to the South. Intensity forecast shows that Dean will be a class 3 major hurricane before he even enters the Gulf. Furthermore, the latest Discussion notes that low shear and high surface temps indicate that Dean could strengthen even faster than the forecast predicts.

I’m thinking of jumping down to NOLA to have a few last samples of the food and music…what’s left of them.